Trade negotiations, be it multilateral or regional, are expected to result in winners and losers, as some national industries contract, while others expand. Economic analysis can shed light on whether the total national gains might be sufficient to permit compensation of the losers. It can also help ascertain the potential interactions of trade measures with poverty, i.e. whether the poor likely to gain or lose from such measures. It is also important to recognize that effective policy negotiations partly depend on the policymakers’ (negotiators’) a priori assessment about the implications arising from different negotiation outcomes. Therefore, it is very important to provide the policymakers with ex ante analysis of alternative scenarios. When most outcomes are generally associated with potential gains as well as losses, it is only through economic analysis one can determine the net benefits. Such analysis is also important to identify the potential losers, even when net benefits are positive, to be supported with the appropriate policy measures and actions.
The tools needed for analysis of the poverty impacts of different multilateral and regional trading arrangements and different policy reforms are becoming more widely available. They include global computable general equilibrium (CGE) models such as those supported by the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) as well as sophisticated single country CGE models. Also, there has been widespread use of the econometric modeling techniques among researchers to address many of the issues related to trade and poverty. And these techniques are becoming increasingly popular among researchers in this region. Indeed a number of researchers from South Asia are members of the GTAP and the PEP (Poverty and Economic Policy) Network. It has, however, been observed that though there are a good number of economic modelers in the South Asian countries, there is no effective network to foster collaboration amongst these individuals. As a result, much of the research conducted by these economists is rarely shared and remains unnoticed, not only by other modelers, but also by the policy makers for whom much of this work is ultimately intended.
Against this backdrop, SANEM – The PEP-GTAP South Asian Economic Modeling Network will promote the production, exchange and dissemination of basic research knowledge on the topics of regional integration, multilateral and domestic trade liberalization, environment and poverty in South Asia. There is no denying the fact that these issues are of the utmost importance for all South Asian countries. This network will therefore seek to link researchers, policy makers, teachers, students, NGOs and other stakeholders interested in these issues for South Asia.
The Poverty and Economic Policy (PEP) Research Network, based in the University of Laval, Quebec, Canada, brings together and provide technical and financial support to developing country researchers working to reduce poverty. The PEP has three components and the MPIA (Modeling and Policy Impact Analysis) is one them. The MPIA network aims to develop high-quality national and comparative research, capacity, and new concepts and methodologies in the modeling and assessment of the impacts of macroeconomic policies and shocks on poverty and equity at the household and intra-household levels.
The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), based at Purdue University, USA is a global network of nearly 5,000 researchers and policy makers conducting quantitative analysis of international policy issues using a global database and a global general equilibrium model. GTAP's goal is to improve the quality of quantitative analysis of global economic issues within an economy-wide framework. GTAP offers courses, organizes an annual conference, and supports an analytical data base for trade policy analysis. A detailed description of the GTAP network is provided in Annex-2.
An excellent example of the PEP-GTAP collaboration and a division of labor is the Palgrave-World Bank book published in January 2006, edited by Thomas W. Hertel and L. Alan Winters, and titled “Poverty and the WTO: Impacts of the Doha Development Agenda”. Several GTAP and PEP researchers jointly contributed to this volume. In several articles, the GTAP model and the sophisticated country CGE models were linked together to examine the impact of global trade policy reforms on households’ poverty and welfare for a number of developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. |